roblev | 11 years ago | on: Laplace’s Demon
roblev's comments
roblev | 11 years ago | on: The Bézier Game
roblev | 12 years ago | on: What Unsustainable Growth Looks Like: Herbalife, Groupon, and More
In reality these corporate actions are value neutral if the current share price is at fair market value.
The value of ongoing profit is reduced if a company has fewer liquid assets to invest.
roblev | 12 years ago | on: Bitcoin and positive vs. normative economics
Sadly it is not so easy to make money this way, the forward exchange rates will cancel out any gain from the interest earned in the inflationary currency. Otherwise everyone would do this.
You can make money doing this but really you are just taking a bet on exchange rates, you can easily lose money as well if the fx goes the wrong way during your investment period.
There are very few risk free ways to make more money than investing in US Treasuries.
roblev | 12 years ago | on: Patent war goes nuclear: Microsoft, Apple-owned “Rockstar” sues Google
The vast majority of single actions that a corporation takes are not mandated under some simplistic view of "maximising shareholder value".
roblev | 12 years ago | on: Einstein and the Great Fed Robbery
Traders do exactly this, it is the service they provide. It is quite unlikely that all the traders in a big bank are going to lose money on the same day.
roblev | 12 years ago | on: Where my mouth is
roblev | 12 years ago | on: Inside the Bitcoin advocates’ closed-door meeting with federal regulators
- QE is about creating new money. The buying of loans is merely a way to distribute it; instead of just giving the money away, the central banks buys an asset (any asset would do) so nobody gets an unfair advantage through distributing the new money.
- all loans can be repaid. At the end, people would just own dollar bills which in turn don't depend on anything else for their value.
- a lot of the confusion around money comes from confusing different sorts of money as being the same thing. We commonly use two sorts of money: Base money (e.g. dollar bills) that depend on nothing. This form of money can only be (legally) created and destroyed by the central bank. The second form of money is Bank money which is a loan of Base money. THis form of money can be created or destroyed by many individuals and banks.
- As an example of Base money vs Bank money, when I pay $100 into a bank, I have really loaned the money to the bank - it owes me $100. Yet I can "spend" this loan with my bank card and by goods from a shop, now the shop is owed $100 by the bank. The loan is a form of money; I really did have some Bank money. But the original $100 bills were sat in the bank vault, and they are definitely still (Base) money.
roblev | 12 years ago | on: Hyperloop
The public seems to have no issue with that concept, it is a simple risk that goes with getting on the train.
roblev | 13 years ago | on: Damn Excel – How the 'most important application' is ruining the world
Excel's real limitations came around scalability of developers (beyond one developer you are in a bad place) and performance that can drop of a cliff beyond a certain size. But it is an astonishingly powerful tool.
roblev | 13 years ago | on: Damn Excel – How the 'most important application' is ruining the world
roblev | 13 years ago | on: BitInstant hacked: What and how it happened
roblev | 13 years ago | on: What killed the Linux desktop
Now I don't really expect linux volunteers to do this, but equally I don't really expect any linux distro to provide a coherent business desktop because they are not talking to their "customers" in the same way that their competition is. And the business desktop is a large market, if a bit unsexy.
roblev | 13 years ago | on: Parrondo's Paradox: How two ugly parents can make a beautiful baby
roblev | 13 years ago | on: Google's Autonomous cars complete 300,000 miles without an accident
Want a big car for a family trip? Just order one and it turns up where you are, ready to take you where you want to go.
A sleeper car for two? A flash sports car for the afternoon? A van for the day?
Pay-as-you-go personal transport from anywhere to anywhere where you can still be productive during the journey... Sounds pretty revolutionary to me.
roblev | 14 years ago | on: Trader: I dream of another recession (and Goldman Sachs rules the world)
Fourier Analysis shows you can model any curve by summing enough sine waves of different amplitudes and frequencies; so given any shape of any market over any time period, I can show a selection of long, medium and short cycles that will approximately match the market. But this will have zero predictive power.
roblev | 14 years ago | on: Ask PG: What has changed since you wrote Hackers and Painters in 2004?
Windows is a better corporate OS than any of the alternatives and Office is an awesome piece of software by any standard.
roblev | 14 years ago | on: Understanding Groupon Means Understanding ACSOI
For example, how many people will demand returns for sales you've recently made? 0%? 15%? you don't know, but you can't "account" for the complete value of past transactions without this estimation of future actions.