vitaminbandit's comments

vitaminbandit | 8 years ago | on: Once a Model City, Hong Kong Is in Trouble

This article takes an economic situation and tries to frame it as a political one. Hong Kongers don't care about the ideological differences between mainland China and HK, they care about the staggering inequality and loss of economic mobility in their once vibrant city.

Chinese money is flooding into Hong Kong and it's all being parked into real estate. This has sent real estate prices skyrocketing and far outside the reach of ordinary citizens. As a secondary effect, Hong Kong elites are now parking all their money into real estate with the expectation that the Chinese capital flight continues to drive up real estate prices. Real estate is the best investment available in Hong Kong right now. Bar none.

With all their capital tied up in real estate, the elites don't invest in startups or R&D. No increases in productivity, no new jobs, no gains for the average citizen in a city that grows more expensive by the day. This is why Hong Kong is in decline. This is why Hong Kongers takes to the streets. It's not a backlash towards conflicting political ideology, they just want the Chinese and their damn money out.

vitaminbandit | 8 years ago | on: A Slow-Motion Trainwreck Facing the Meal-Kit Industry

Uh, what exactly is your competitive edge? You've framed the problem but haven't provided any details on how using customer data and preferences solves it.

Isn't the most accurate customer preference data the actual real-time decision that the customer makes at the time of order?

vitaminbandit | 8 years ago | on: Apple's decision on “tips” may undermine its prospects in China

Idiotic play by Apple.

First, Apple's losing market share in the Chinese smartphone market and it's not simply due to cheaper phones. Apple was/is primarily a status brand, but what's the status advantage in having an $800 iPhone vs an $800 Samsung? There isn't one and everyone is starting to recognizes that.

Second, WeChat runs everything in China. Every. Thing. It's your WhatsApp, your Skype, your Yelp, your OpenTable, your Venmo, etc. Every cent that Apple tries to take out of WeChat "tips" is not a cent that it's snatched from another faceless corporation, it's a cent out of the hands of individuals who rely on those tips. It's money leaving the hands of individuals and going into the largest market-cap company in the world. Is it a surprise that people are going to be pissed?

Apple should be careful not to overplay its hand. China has already banished major American companies (Google + Facebook) for not playing by its rules and it could easily position itself to do the same to Apple.

vitaminbandit | 8 years ago | on: Bitcoin Bubble

No, you can't send it because you wouldn't have enough to cover the transaction fee.

vitaminbandit | 8 years ago | on: Ask HN: What information to ask for when doing a contract?

Not directly answering your question, but giving you some general advice since this is your first contract:

1) Make the other party agree that all IP belongs to you until the final invoice is paid. This is often your only leverage should your client decide to stop paying you.

2) Send weekly updates VIA EMAIL to your client on what you've done. Do not do this over Slack or any other communications medium that they control. If they decide to revoke your access on Slack, you will no longer have access to those logs and no proof.

3) Set terms for post-contract support. Under no circumstances should you be providing unlimited free support after the contract is over.

vitaminbandit | 8 years ago | on: Too many prisons make people worse

> That's a logical fallacy (Simpson's Paradox). It could be the case that when you condition on each neighborhood, the per capita murder rate is lower than Britain's, but the overall per capita murder rate is higher.

One, phrase your statement properly. You intended to compare neighborhood to corresponding neighborhood between the two countries. Not "Britain's".

Two, as others have mentioned. You have no basis for invoking Simpson's Paradox.

> Explain how Simpson's Paradox works here. Explain how it can be mathematically possible for each state/city/etc to have a lower murder per capita than the national murder per capita. Use concrete numbers as examples.

Three, how does your example satisfy my comment?

Four, I know Simpson's Paradox. I also know the difference between knowing something and knowing the name of something.

vitaminbandit | 8 years ago | on: Too many prisons make people worse

Explain how Simpson's Paradox works here. Explain how it can be mathematically possible for each state/city/etc to have a lower murder per capita than the national murder per capita. Use concrete numbers as examples.

Spoiler: it isn't mathematically possible.

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