xadhominemx
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4 months ago
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on: Alibaba Cloud says it cut Nvidia AI GPU use by 82% with new pooling system
The US is certainly slowing down China considerably. China would certainly not have an import ban on Blackwell GPUs if they were made available. And upstream, the ban on EUV and other high end semiconductor production equipment has severely limited china’s capacity to produce logic and DRAM (including HBM).
xadhominemx
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4 months ago
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on: SEC approves Texas Stock Exchange, first new US integrated exchange in decades
I’m sure all their infrastructure and probably the majority of their employees will be in the NYC metro area.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
They are doing it for the love of the game, IMO
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
Consensus EPS for FY27 (~CY26) is $6.40. Buy side is higher!
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
If we are not headed to ASI, the spending will slow down and the problem will solve itself.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
Their earnings will certainly decline or at least decelerate if capex slows. I’m just saying, if the market wasn’t pricing in a slowdown, NVDA would be trading at 40-60x next year EPS, not 25x.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
They just committed to invest $100b (!) in OpenAI and said $100b is only the start.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
If we get ASI it will figure out how to do the green transition for us!
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
Hyperscalers are only spending less than half of their operating cash flows on AI capex. Full commitment to achieving AGI within a few years would look much different.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
NVDA stock does not trade at a huge multiple. Only 25x EPS despite very rapid top line growth and a dominant position at the eve of possibly the most important technology transition in the history of humankind. The market is (and has been) pricing in a slowdown.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
More efficient inference = more reasoning token. Hyperscaler ASICs are closing the gap at the hardware/system level, yes.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?
Test time compute has made consumption highly elastic. More compute = better results. Marginal cost of running these GPUs when they would otherwise be idle is relatively very low. It will be utilized.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Microsoft CTO says he wants to swap most AMD and Nvidia GPUs for homemade chips
For large models, the bottlenecks are memory bandwidth, network, and power consumption by the DAC/ADC arrays
It’s never come even close to penciling out in practice.
For small models there are people working on this implemented in flash memory eg Mythic.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Cerebras systems raises $1.1B Series G
I understand that topic well. They stitched top metal layers across the reticle - not that challenging, and the foundational IP is not their own.
Everyone else went the CoWoS direction, which enables heterogeneous integration and much more cost effective inference.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Cerebras systems raises $1.1B Series G
Cerebras hasn’t made any technical breakthroughs, they are just putting everything in SRAM. It’s a brute force approach to get very high inference throughput but comes at extremely high cost per token per second and is not useful for batched inferencing. Groq uses the same approach.
Memory hierarchy management across HBM/DDR/Flash is much more difficult but necessary to achieve practical inference economics.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Cerebras systems raises $1.1B Series G
I don’t think so. The reason why Cerebras is so fast for inference is that the KV cache sits in the SRAM.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Alibaba's new AI chip: Key specifications comparable to H20
Why would you say 16A would never be manufactured in the United States? It is of course TSMC’s plan of record.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: Alibaba's new AI chip: Key specifications comparable to H20
In 24 months, US hyperscalers will be training models on GPUs/XPUs with 16A process technology and HBM4E. The gap between the raw processing power of US and Chinese AI hardware will be widening.
xadhominemx
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5 months ago
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on: I feel Apple has lost its alignment with me and other long-time customers
“A modular iphone that has an easy to replace battery, easy to replace screen and is maybe 2mm thicker to account for it?”
Definitely not! This would be an inferior product in almost every respect for 95% of customers.
xadhominemx
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6 months ago
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on: South Korean workers detained in Hyundai plant raid to be freed and flown home
There are visa types specifically created for this sort of situation (e.g. E2 visas). But those visas are only available to certain nationals and South Koreans are not among them, which is very stupid given the strong commercial and strategic ties between the USA and South Korea.
