yusuke10's comments

Alot of the opposite is true. Alot of the Chinese old timers remember the brutality they suffered under Mao and are very upset at this current event. Many of them want to sell their factories and move the money to HK (and eventually out of China).

FAKE gdp. most likely 0% gdp growth, if not negative.

China’s 2015 GDP Was Exaggerated By Fake Data, Analysis Shows (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-01/china-s-2...)

Another Chinese city admits 'fake' economic data (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-data/anothe...)

This Is How China's Regions Fare in the Fake GDP Data Stakes (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/this-is-h...)

> From the outside looking in

Exactly, there's your problem. China is suffering from 300%+ debt, capital outflows (hidden, unreported), fake gdp growth (several provinces have claimed 20-30% fake revenue), demographics time bomb, middle income trap, shrinking population (800M estimated in 2100), corruption, pollution, belligerent behaviors against all its neighbors (Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia, India, etc), smart people wanting leave, rich people wanting to leave, etc

> For example, I recently heard from a friend with family in China that Americans who go to China can make $50 an hour private English tutoring rich Chinese kids. How can wages be rising so much in China and they are still wildly undercutting us?

China is a country of HUGE income inequalities. You have a few people that make millions and you have few hundred million people make $500/year. The middle class for them makes only $800/month. Money all flows to the top to the government/state firms, and much eventually flows out to Canada/Australia/US.

> The other weird thing is Americans who move to low cost south east Asia locations and run dropship ecommerce stores that make $2000 a month and live like they were making 10 times that in the bay area.

Living abroad is good for young singles, bad for anyone else. There's bad weather, dirty food, dirty water, food poisoning, no access to good healthcare, lots of noise and pollution. Not to mention if you're an entrepreneur, you are not putting down a root, not making network connections you need for sales, not going to meetup events and learning new technologies, etc.

On the one hand, US is doing great. US grew 3% annualized last year, on a base of 19T, the most in the world. That's very impressive considering how big the base is to even have such a big percentage. You can compare that to China, where they had to keep reporting a fake 7% growth despite their provinces confessing to a 20-30% fake revenue. In the last 40 years, America's middle class shrank 7%. However, the lower middle class shrank 7% as well, and the upper middle class grew 16%. (http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/21/news/economy/upper-middle-cl...) . Implying that alot of the lower middle and middle had moved up. Especially in certain cities like San Francisco or Santa Clara, where there is just an abundance of $130k+/year jobs (and contrary to popular belief, one can easily save $50-60k/year by renting a room in a house at $1000/month).

On the other hand, it seems like the lower class has barely budged, and has remained in place and their quality of life has suffered. They have been losing manufacturing jobs to China and other countries (20M at the height in 1970, 12M currently http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/07/news/economy/us-manufacturin...). However, now with an administration dedicated to bringing jobs back from overseas (with focus on manufacturing), and enacting tariffs on countries that competes by flooding the market and destroying local competition, the jobs for lower class should be growing starting this year. The current solar/washing machine tariff, and upcoming steel and aluminum tariffs against China should help.

It's funny, if an author with a book to peddle repeats the mantra enough times..."China is innovative", it might become true.

And yet, what evidence does she raise?

"the electronics were assembled in China; almost never were they invented in China"

"paying with your smartphone has become the norm"

"bikeshare firms"

"China has the largest number of unicorns outside the US"

Nothing that would define as innovations. Let's ask ourselves. What consumer innovations has China come up with in the last 40 years that is known worldwide. Think hard. Maybe none? one? Now compare that against Japan in its 40 years rise.

> greater prosperity can be had with increased repression.

Fake prosperity between 2012 and now. 300%+ debt ratio. High government debt. High (state) corporate debt. creeping up Household debt. Several provinces disclosed 20-30% fake revenue. Xi's government now stresses stability over GDP growth (sign of weakness). Several high-level Chinese economists warn of an economic crash in China.

1.) Chinese government did this to itself, with the 1.3B population. China only had 500M in 1950, but the communist government condemned birth control and banned imports of contraceptives.

2.) At some point, you can't keep using the excuse "but 1 Billion people" for doing disgusting things. When you harvest prisoners' organs. When you imprison 120,000 minorities in camps. When you build an artificial island to the horror of 10+ other countries around you. When you keep threatening to invade Taiwan. When you prop up North Korea. When you monitor and censor everything.

3.) You rule out the possibility that China can have a republic or democracy. which is shameful. Granted it's low, but Authoritarian regime doesn't have to be a certainty.

So the short answer is, don't support China.

Long answer is

- reduce buying stuff from China.

- reduce buying stuff on aliexpress or alibaba or even amazon. try buying local

- call out leaders and entrepreneurs on social media when they are acquiescing/favorable to China (Tim Cook, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, etc)

- try to start up manufacturing of hardwares in your city/state/country

- call out China's totalitarianism in your circle of influence

Don’t forget the massive Chinese re-education camp for 120,000 uighers.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/...

> What China manages to do quite well is stop rentiers from stifling innovation

Tell that to the dying startups that have to stand up against Tencent and Alibaba. Beijing is littered with them. Let's not forget the various Chinese state-owned enterprises.

Other things in the paper

> AMERICANS, and friends of America, often reassure themselves about its relative decline in the following way

The decline is a myth; US is doing really well. US has a 3% gdp growth, which is huge when you realize the base is 19 Trillion! Contrast that with China, whose provinces just announced 20-30% fake revenue and putting the funny consistent 7% gdp growth in realm of accounting fraud.

> Uncle Sam may have ceded the top spot to China in exports in 2007, and manufacturing in 2011

Not with all of the protectionism and tariffs coming to hit China, from US, EU, and Japan. China can't get around import tariffs by shipping from Vietnam, South Korea, or Africa anymore. Solar panel and refrigerators now, steel and aluminum next. Apple's 300B investment amongst others will revitalize US manufacturing.

> China’s unicorns, a proxy for the next generation of giants, are in total worth 69% of America’s,

Xiaomi's 40B unicorn valuation is all the way from 2014. It's losing to Oppo and Huawei in China. Meituan Dianping is burning cash rapidly like Uber, same as Didi Chuxing.

The paper cites a few things

> But now the number of cited AI papers by Chinese scientists is already at 89% of the American level

Every article that wants to claim that China AI is on par with American AI claims this. But US has 10X the amount of AI scientists as China, which means Chinese AI scientists produces 10X amount of papers as American scientists. Quantity over quality, spurred by government cash rewards. Lots of noise, no bite.

> China’s e-commerce sales are double America’s. Chinese firms are collectively 53% as big as America’s, measured by market value

That's because China has 1.3B population, about 4X times more than America's 350B. However, it is projected that China will have peak population in this decade, and will be around 800M population sometimes in 2100. America has alot better demographics, vs China who has one of the oldest, and whose working population will contract by a few hundred millions by 2050

> Chinese non-tech firms are relatively primitive and only 26% as digitised as American ones. As for investment, Chinese tech’s absolute budget is only 30% as big as that of American tech. And it is still small abroad, with foreign sales of 18% of the total that American firms make.

that's the gist of the article. China is nowhere near as big as America's tech currently. And China is on its way to the lost decade (that's why xijingping recently wanted the provinces to focus on things other than GDP, since the local governments are levered to the hill with debt)

I know he is your father, but what your father did was essentially, after having tasted the freedom and democracy in australia, he choose to go back to an authoritarian dictatorship for money and help the government pursue research in bio. Would he be comfortable if that same government decides to use the biological research on its 120,000 Uighurs held in re-education camps?

Just because the collapse hasn’t happened publicly doesn’t mean it won’t happen or it hasn’t happened. China can’t escape economic gravity, the same way Soviet Union didn’t escape gravity when it collapsed, even though everything was ok state owned.

Checkout Chinese provinces lying about inflating 25-30% of revenue, overstating their constant 7% gdp growth, debt ratio of over 300%, massive capital outflow, their own economists warning of a crash, and many others To see just how bad their crash will be

> anti-China comments in any such article is driven by fear (possibly at a subconscious level) that the Chinese model actually works.

Lol sure it works....until you're one of the citizen being tortured by the government. I can't believe how greedy these scientists are. As if Einstein should have worked for the Nazis.

"China 'holding at least 120,000 Uighurs in re-education camps'"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/25/at-least-12000...

"In China, the Brutality of ‘House Arrest’" https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/25/opinion/in-china-the-brut...

"Liu Xiaobo, Chinese Dissident Who Won Nobel While Jailed, Dies at 61" https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/13/world/asia/liu-xiaobo-dea...

"Report: China still harvesting organs from prisoners at a massive scale" https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/23/asia/china-organ-harvesting/i...