Ask HN: Company is firing all employees – should I still exercise my options?

[Lindathefounder]

About 2.5 months ago I left my executive position at a promising blockchain startup. As I am nearing the end of my 90 day period for option exercising, i've come to know that the company sent out prior notice to all employees a few days ago, as it is struggling to raise money. All 3 founders are at work trying to raise capital in the upcoming month before money runs out and they are also planing on continuing to do so after all employees leave. On one hand, I am very hesitant to exercise because of the current status. On the other hand, the company has a remarkable product (which they might decide to sell) and the industry is still very much in it's diapers, meaning there is tons of true potential.

i have a lot of faith in the founders but the recent news really threw me off. Would love to hear your thoughts!

More information: -Company size: 15 employees -Exercise price: $20 (679 options/2.3% of the company) -Company raised from several VC's and also via ICO. -I still hold company's digital currency. -Status: recently launched product (fully functional) after 1.5 years of development with very few customers but high growth rate.

[chadash]

I don't know your financial situation. Maybe $13K isn't much to you. However, I probably wouldn't buy these shares for the following reasons:

1) The company just fired all of its employees

2) The company just fired all of its employees

3) The company just fired all of its employees

That's a really bad sign. Even if they raise additional money, it likely won't be on good terms. With the price of bitcoin way down from it's peak, and much of the "fools" money in this space dried up, I can't imagine that a company who is so close to the edge that they have to fire all of their employees is going to get great fundraising terms.

But take my advice with a grain of salt, as you obviously know and understand the company better than I do.

As an aside, the fact that you are asking here likely means that you have an emotional investment in the company. I get it. If you really have FOMO, you can always split the difference and maybe exercise half the options, or whatever amount you wouldn't mind losing. I once exercised a few thousand dollars of options knowing that it was a bad investment, but also knowing that if I was wrong and the company did well, I'd have a terrible regret. And it's purely because I worked there for a few years... it's not like I obsess over the fact that I didn't make an early investment in Amazon (where I never worked), even though logically that's the same thing.

[pbreit]

Almost certainly any new money raised would be on terms that wipe out nearly all existing holders of equity.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/crammeddown.asp

[Lindathefounder]

Thanks for your answer! You hit the spot with some things. I am definitely emotionally involved with the company and considered the option of exercising only some of the options - that might be the best option at the moment. One thing to point out is that there is still a month worth of raising time (with all employees still in the company), which is significant in startup terms.

[whoisjuan]

This. Maybe you have faith in the product and the IP, but these are worthless if the people who can help transfer all the knowledge to a possible acquirer are gone.

If the founders were the only engineers maybe there's still some chance that they can manage an acquihire for themselves, but it would be worth pennies, and any transaction will likely be below your option execution price.

Firing all the employees is a rather transparent signal that liquidation events (or any financial events) are off the table, and founders are simply debulking expenses to kill the company.

Also, the simple and straight forward solution to your problem is simply to ask them. These might be hard times for the founders but a short and candid message asking about the situation wouldn't hurt. They probably don't want you or anyone spending their money in a dead company.

[alasdair_]

> it's not like I obsess over the fact that I didn't make an early investment in Amazon (where I never worked), even though logically that's the same thing.

I have a friend who was first 50 at Amazon and let 50,000 Amazon options expire. He still did well but... FOMO is a real thing. $1000 is probably my cap in this situation however.

[hitekker]

You forgot:

4) The company just fired all of its employees

/s. An amusing and thoughtful response!

[mchannon]

$13k for 2.3% of the company is one thing, but how about $13k for 0.023% of the company? Your company could be headed for a "washout round".

In the end it's a question of how dear that $13k is to you. If you've got millions in the bank, do it. If gathering that $13k would require you to max out a couple of credit cards and call in your last couple of favors, then don't do it.

Wherever you lie on that huge section in between is going to determine your decision, I think. There are a couple of companies that even for nonpublic stock will buy your exercised units, so if they value each unit/share at $200 then this is a simple decision: exercise and sell (some or all).

Alternatively, you might be able to stretch that $13k a lot further by investing in the next round. Get a good finger on the pulse of the ask price and see how low they'll go before they give up. Your $13k may be the lifeline that buys the company the 15 days it needs to not die, and should be valued accordingly.

[awinder]

If you want to take a long shot bet on something I'd just take the 13.5K and place some ridiculous march madness bets. I'm damn near convinced given the info here that you can get similar odds / price with however you wanted to structure those bets, and you can find out within a few days/weeks what happened as opposed to having that money locked up for who knows how long.

I'm mostly kidding, but also not really -- I would seriously put some thought into whether any part of you thinks that this is really a unique investment opportunity, if you're really on some "inside edge" or discounted price given the admittedly subpar position of the company, and if this really differs in any marginal way from any other more liquid form of speculation or downright betting. I don't have the details but this screams "poor financial decision" from where I'm sitting.

[mikekchar]

Just a bit of reading between the lines (from your previous postings ;-) ): Yeah... I wouldn't touch those shares with a ten foot pole while wearing a hazmat suit (the goggles, they do nothing!)

Unless I'm inter-line-reading incorrectly, the company raised $1m giving away 50% of the cap table. They ran out of money and pivoted. Loaded labour rate of about $150K initially I guess... Then raise money from an ICO -- must have been something around $3-4M given the 15 employees now. That money is gone. Originally 2 founders, now 3 (cap table is shrinking). I think there is no way at all that they will be able to raise money. Even if they sell the IP, it will be a fire sale.

This is not financial advice. I am not any kind of financial expert. I can't tell you what to do. I might be entirely wrong, but I don't see recovery at this stage, no matter what the business is.

[Lindathefounder]

LOL. loved your comment! You hit the spot with your assessments and thanks for doing the research behind it. I think I should probably run best and worst case scenarios with the cap table alongside me. I agree that from the looks of it, it's pretty risky.

[berberous]

How much is $13k to you, as a percentage of your net worth?

If you believe in blockchain and want to make an extremely risky, but potentially high payoff, bet, I'd personally just split the 13k across BTC and ETH. Those can also go to zero, or grow another 10x+, but you are at least exposed to the entire industry, rather than a single startup. The investment would also be far more liquid, and you could sell at anytime. Even the most successful crypto startup (Coinbase) hasn't done as well as an investment in BTC.

Don't get trapped into overvaluing the options because you already own them. If you had never worked at the company, and they called you today asking to buy 2.3% for $13k, would you do it over buying BTC?

[tom_]

This would be my advice as well. If you're determined to throw away $13,500 on some blockchain-themed boondoggle, this is a better drain down which to tip it.

Past performance is no automatic guide to the future, but speculating on Bitcoin has often turned out pretty well. Sounds like speculating on the company you used to work for, by contrast, will have reliably turned out poorly.

[duiker101]

> - blockchain startup

> - struggling to raise money

> - tons of true potential

Run.

[navigatesol]

My sentiments exactly.

From promising startup to out of money in 2.5 months? As an executive, did you not have insight into these things?

[StreamBright]

But it is decentralized.

[sneak]

don’t forget that they are also now mostly without staff.

[lasereyes136]

I have done this before, more than once. Some companies were in better shape, some this bad. Every one of them failed. Every dollar I spent was wasted. You may get different results.

Don't kid yourself into thinking this is a good bet. It is a huge gamble that most likely will not pay off. If you can accept that and still want to do it, go ahead. If you don't want to take the risk, don't.

[athrowaway3z]

Couple of perspectives you could take. Here are two:

1: Would you be willing to invest $13K into the company right now with your own money in exchange for 2.3%?

2: What are the most extreme odds you are willing to take for

[ X % -> $50K+ , Y % -> $13K , Z % -> $0 | X+Y+Z = 100%]

Then figure out what others are saying the chances of X and Y are.

P.S. My (generous) uninformed bet would be X=1-5% and Y=30%

[jacknews]

I would exercise at least a single option, or whatever 'gambling play money' you have.

If the company eventually unicorns, you will regret having been a part of it but not benefiting financially at all. Even a single share could be a consolation and may actually end up valuable.

If you max out all your options, assuming that's more than your 'play money' budget, you may much sooner regret the decision if the company tanks in a month or two which seems like a definite possibility.

[muzani]

Very, very few companies do well after a large firing round. What I would look at is how they handled the firing. Did they do it respectfully? Did they apologize or did they blame the people who they fired? Is morale still high after the process? Did the founders handle the firing themselves or did they outsource it to someone?

Generally the companies that have done turnarounds after a firing round have done it respectfully. Often morale floors after a bad round, smart people leave, remaining people are unproductive. Combined with whatever reasons triggered the firing, most companies don't recover.

[brogrammernot]

As others have pointed out, you’re going to get diluted tremendously if they raise another round.

When a startup is trying to survive they’ll give up a tremendous amount of equity because the alternative is 80% of nothing or 40% of something.

Does that $13k hurt you to pay out? If it’s not that painful, you can weigh that.

For what’s its worth, I didn’t exercise my options when leaving the last two companies and I felt so sick to my stomach when the last one sold for a couple hundred million but then I looked & saw they sold for less than their last valuation so my shares would’ve been even more watered down in value.

[oldprogrammer2]

1. Setting the exercise window to 90 days instead of a more reasonable window (measured in years) should be a strong indicator that whoever is structuring their deals is not at all interested in the welfare of your equity.

2. You no longer have a seat in the company (much less at the deal table).

3. Their desperation will be apparent, and they will accept very bad terms in the round (firing your staff = no leverage).

Even if they manage to stay in business, your investment is unlikely to be worth anything. As someone else said, would you really want to invest in this company if not for your history? Why not put that $13k into another investment?

[maccio92]

A 90 day exercise window after leaving a company is the most common situation I've seen

[lowlevel]

Personally I wouldn't touch it. We're going on 10 years of 'blockchain' being inappropriately applied to anything and everything and you can still count the winners on one hand. It's illegal to set money on fire... but that would probably have a better chance of paying off. This is not financial advice.

[spookthesunset]

The only winners in the blockchain game are the scammers who are laughing all the way to the bank with all the dirty fiat handed to them by a bunch of naive rubes.

Everybody else, including all the spectators, lose. After all, those coal fired power plants dump a lot of crap into the air to power the energy hog that is Satoshi's Blockchain.

[QuackingJimbo]

> promising blockchain startup

This can't be a serious post

[icedchai]

I am convinced most blockchain startups are solutions looking for problems. Yes, there are exceptions... Maybe this person is involved with one them?

[martin_a]

Yeah. "Promising" and "Blockchain" won't work in one sentence in this context.

[kabdib]

Blockchain industry . . . firing employees . . . few customers.

I wouldn't bother, you're going to lose your money. If the company pulls through, or finds a buyer for their product, it's highly likely they will play games and essentially extinguish your shares.

[wolco]

Why would you exercise them? Literally throwing away 13k on a company about to implode. The best you can expect is another round allowing a pivot making that 2.3% .23. Pass.

[codemusings]

Without knowing anything about the product or your engine of growth it's hard to give any meaningful advice. Especially since people seem to slap the word blockchain on anything to get potential investors excited.

[testpostpls]

Assume the company succeeds. You’ll probably get screwed out of your current “2.3%” unless the founders create investor FOMO, which it sounds like they can’t.

I’d stay in touch with the founders.

[cimmanom]

How would you feel, and what position would you be in financially, if you exercised your options and a month from now the company simply went out of business? Consider that a very real possibility. This does not sound like a company that’s in a good position to succeed.

[CPLX]

> About 2.5 months ago I left my executive position at a promising blockchain startup

And that's exactly where I stopped reading.

The simple answer is no. Run away. There's no such thing.