Ask HN: What skills will be useful during an upcoming recession/depression?

[sideway]

My economic knowledge is limited but it seems like the effects of the global domino triggered by conoravirus will echo for many years to come. As a generalist who never had an issue finding a job so far, I'm afraid that in this new reality my software/management skills won't be of any use in 6 months.

What skills would be valuable to develop now to adapt as quick as possible to the new state of things?

[madhadron]

People are acting as though we're going back to a pre-industrial economy with this. It's not true. The power isn't going out. The water will continue to come out of the tap.

So my suggestion short term is: learn to cook if you don't know how to. Not fancy, haute cuisine, but how to take whatever's in the pantry and make something tasty out of it. Learn how to grow some produce in small spaces, even if it's just herbs.

Learn how to not spend money. How to reduce your energy and water usage. How to do basic repairs and projects yourself. What you have to buy in a time of logistical disruption is time. If you can increase the time you can be without income from a month to four months or from six months to two years, that is a remarkable difference in your resilience.

[pbourke]

I second learning to cook - it’s a skill valuable in good times and bad and really helps you to eat cheaply and healthily if you are mindful of your ingredients.

There are tons of helpful videos to get you started. I recommend Bon Appétit’s Test Kitchen on YouTube

[rolph]

there is disproportionality in the works.

senior positions that require many years of experience for entrancy due to the nature of the job may suddenly go vacant with noone to fill them.

when older people, {people who understand how to retool and operate a VLSI plant for example, people who are ATCs or surgeons} die and there is only a pool of young inexperience to draw from we will have to make do without some of these things, change laws to allow reduced qualifications, and or accept things like nuclear accidents as a learning curve until we have experienced people ,[after the replacements make time in]

[quickthrower2]

Lentils. Just boil them in water with a stock cube. Done

[spookybones]

I'm am really trying to determine whether or not this will be the next great depression.

[ogn3rd]

learn to grow lettuce/greens (chard, kale, etc), it's super cheap, needs almost no fertilizer and can be done in 6 weeks. You cut it and it comes back in another few weeks. $15.00 worth of seeds from a place like Johnny's will last a year or more.

[nickriebe]

love this, thank you

[elmarschraml]

Skills are tactics. Dealing with a recession is about strategy.

Most importantly: this is a time to focus on reducing risks, rather than maximizing profit.

This is a crappy time to start a startup or being a freelancer. Keep your job, build your skills, save money, and start in a few years.

Think about your job's security: Pay attention to your employers annual/quarterly reports. Which industries does your employer sell to? Travel, restaurants, hotel, retail, small businesses will be the worst hit, with little money to spend.

This is also a bad time to change jobs - depending on your local laws, it probably is much, much easier to lay off someone who just started.

Maybe broaden your skillls. In good times, it is more profitable to be a specialist - e.g. much better to be THE leading expert on scaling wordpress, rather than an all-purpose linux admin. In bad times, when jobs are scarce, being less of a specialist increaes the number of jobs you are suitable for.

Save money, lower your burn-rate, extend your runway - usually meant for start-ups, but this goes for your personal finances just as well

Become familiar with laws and benefits from the government for unemployment, lay-offs etc - if you should happen to find yourself unemployed, know what you have to do, how much assistance you can expect.

That being said: If you have a high risk-tolerance, and can afford to, now is also a great time to start a business or to invest, simply because nobody else is, so there is much less competition for everything.

[polishdude20]

I work for a university as a teacher. What do you think the economic implications might be for a university in the coming months? I can see less new people enrolling next semester, current students refusing to pay the same tuition if it's going to continue being all online etc.

[drstewart]

>This is also a bad time to change jobs - depending on your local laws, it probably is much, much easier to lay off someone who just started.

Counterpoint: this is a great time to change jobs. There is much higher upside on equity packages.

[tmountain]

Cooking from basic ingredients. Growing a basic seasonal garden. Finding ways to be happy with less and appreciate the simple pleasures in life. Placing value on human relationships more than material things. The art of conversation. Enjoying simple/affordable/accessible hobbies.

[pen2l]

All of these things seem learnable with available resources except the art of conversation, something that I actually need a lot of work on. And recommendations on how I can improve on this?

[DethNinja]

Honestly, I don’t believe we will see a huge depression unless there is war. People are still available for work and all the equipment used for producing value is in good conditions. So long as government provides fiscal stimulus, depression shouldn’t happen.

In case it happens though, you are better of farming stuff like potatoes and chicken than developing software until government steps in with fiscal stimulus, though it will require some existing capital.

[maxander]

In many cases, people aren't available; they're sheltering at home, social distancing. Even for those who can work remotely, the disruption to routine is going to reduce productivity. And worse, many assets are going to be destroyed- for instance, restaurants that go under while distancing is taking place are just going to be gone, and while the brute equipment can be reused later, the "organizational capital" (the habits and knowledge of how to run that particular business in that particular context most effectively) vanishes.

Various governmental interventions (stimulus, rent freezes, etc) can ameliorate this, but I'm not confident (and the financial sector isn't confident, I think) that the government is presently competent enough to get too much mileage out of implementing these; stimulus needs to be done correctly and promptly to have much effect.

If you're in (or your customers are in) an industry that can hunker down and "weather the downturn," the eventual return to normal will be priced in and you'll likely be fine. If you're in (or ditto) an industry that will suffer attrition, the uncertainty will be priced in and you're liable to suffer. Give some thought as to where you stand.

[glouwbug]

We may be okay if COVID is our only real threat. Self isolation won't be impeded, and hospitals will not over saturate. If anything disturbs self isolation, like a massive earthquake, drought, Australian like fires, or like you say a war, there is no chance of a quick rebounding economy.

That being said, as an aside, imagine slipping into a 3 month coma from a heavy Christmas 2019 party and waking up to eight other people on ventilators in your room. Imagine finding out Kobie Bryant died, that the USA assassinated a top Iranian military figure, and that the world economy dropped 35% in 1 month.

You'd think there was a war.

[analog31]

Math and physics carried me through two recessions so far. I never got rich, but also never poor.

[TheAdamAndChe]

It's a bit of a tangent, but do you have any advice on how to self-learn math? I'd like to complete some CLEP classes so I can meet the prerequisites for a CS program, but it's tough to learn on my own.

[jmeister]

Add CS to Math and Physics, and you’ll go through the next one very rich

[uxcolumbo]

Can you explain how it kept you above waters?

Did it make you a better developer?

[arvinsim]

Would you say that learning Finance directly would be better?

[ohiovr]

If you can learn how to repair things there will always be need of that in a siege. Returning value from utter losses will be of great need.

edit

For a couple simple examples consider the bic lighter. The strikers are made well enough it is possible to refill them and reuse them several times. Here is a video I made on it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fnnDu-_hso

possibly not the best video but it just shows it isn't very hard.

What about a ventilator that needs a part? Not hard for someone who knows a lot about 3d printing.

[joering2]

Strongly advise against making any parts of equipment for healthcare or even more - device that sustains life. If it breaks, it will be very simple for government to find you liable. That's also - sadly - reason why these ventilators are so darn expensive, so that they go thru lots of scrutiny and testing.

[brunojppb]

while we see some industries taking a hit during this crises, we also see many others soaring with the rise of distributed and remote work. Software products targeting this field will get even more relevant and jobs will likely flourish. That is why I believe having software/management skills are still relevant in the short/long-term.

[1121redblackgo]

Mental self-care and acceptance of negative experiences. Working out in small areas/body weight exercises. Cooking on a budget. Getting out of your own head and own problems and into thinking about other people, is also immensely psychologically healthy.

[Trasmatta]

> Getting out of your own head and own problems and into thinking about other people, is also immensely psychologically healthy.

Hmm, anyone have any tips about what to do if this actually just overwhelms and depresses you? I can deal emotionally with my own problems fairly well. But when I start thinking about the wide spread suffering among both the people I know and care about as well as the world at large,I get immediately overwhelmed and start to shut down.

[war1025]

Communication never hurts. Being able to distill ideas down to their actionable core and spot miscommunication before it derails things is useful in any context.

[rolph]

ham radio operators builders, radio/comms engineers

[downerending]

Speaking as an also-generalist, I think it's actually a good place to be. My whole career has been pretty much "Here's something you've never seen before, an we need it fixed.". People who can do that will always be in demand.

Beyond that, consider the Epicurean Tetrapharmakos

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrapharmakos

especially point three. If you think about it, what you truly need to survive is easier had than you might think.

[coffeefirst]

It's a recession, not an apocalypse. These are kind of old news:

1. Budgeting. Know exactly where your money goes and what dials you can turn.

2. It's less about skills than products and services. So it becomes a better time to be a Costco or a cobbler (which helps people save money) than to be a Tesla (which helps people spend money).

For software, my suspicion is infinite monthly SaaS subscriptions will come under more scrutiny. And it might be a bad time to run a money-bleeding self-driving car startup. But that's my only firm guess at this point.

[superasn]

I still think there is plenty of demand for web developers.

If you have time on your hands and know some basic programming then might I suggest learning some web technologies. Even if you can't land a job quickly you can make some income being an indie hacker too (though you may need to learn at least a few marketing skills and SEO)

[BurningFrog]

My thought is that this virus will have passed through the world, one way or another, in 4-8 months.

After that, the world reverts back to what it was doing.

My point is that this is no underlying weakness in the global economy. It's more like a slow moving natural disaster.

I'll admit I don't feel super confident that this is how things work. Happy to be corrected!

[pergadad]

Sorry, I don't want to be too negative but I find your sentiment very naive and self-centred.

If you're well off now you'll be fine. If you're decently off in a wealthy country you'll be fine too. If you're one of the precariously employed and healthcare-less workers in a country like the US you will suffer and might die. If you are a precariously employed person in a poor country you'll watch many friends and family die.

Think what happens in Italy, a country with one of the best healthcare systems in the world, hitting South Sudan. Don't confuse your reality with how it will hit the rest of the world.

[realtalk_sp]

> My point is that this is no underlying weakness in the global economy.

Unfortunately, this is not at all true. There is a tremendous amount of debt in the system and we are on the precipice of a credit crisis that could wipe out a significant chunk of the global economy.

[bttw2]

I don't think so. 4 months without any customers is an eternity for restaurants/bar industry or tourism industry. A larger portion of these businesses will go bankrupt or reduce their size. People will lose their jobs and not have any money to buy stuff, which in turn slows down the economy even more.

I also think 4 months is very optimistic, I bet things aren't "normal" for over a year.

[ilaksh]

Take a look at what Ray Dalio and others have been saying about the long-term debt cycle.

In fact, there is a massive global debt problem that has been building for many decades.

[pxue]

My father lost his job in the 2008 recession at an engineering firm.

He started his own consultancy.

Dozen or so years later he's pulling in mid 6 figures by himself working 40-60h a month at home.

Do the same. Have skills, learn to sell them.

[DrNuke]

The care industry at local level is poised to do well and get funded more than in the recent past in order to protect the vulnerable part of the population from the disease and avoid further waves. They will need generalists and computer-savvy operators to smoothen their peaks for sure.

[Waterluvian]

I'm learning how to refinish my decks. Needs some rotten wood replaced. A massive clean. A repaint. And a whole bunch of gross looking misaligned cuts replaced too. I'll then re-do the wiring for the staircase lights and outlet.

I like this project because it isn't blocking anything (like if I took the kitchen out). And when it's all done, this will be the summer I made our back decks beautiful rather than the summer we were stuck inside feeling anxious.

[ericsoderstrom]

> the effects of the global domino triggered by conoravirus will echo for many years to come.

Why? As far as I know there's no underlying systemic financial reason for a depression or recession. The virus sucks. Some companies will no doubt have a bad quarter or two. But viruses pass, and this one will too.

> I'm afraid that in this new reality my software/management skills won't be of any use in 6 months.

That seems hyperbolic.

[ken]

> Some companies will no doubt have a bad quarter or two.

That seems like an understatement. 99.9% of businesses in the USA are small businesses. Most that I know will be lucky to survive a month of this, without serious government assistance.

[tayo42]

I think 6 months of lock downs or stay at home would show a lot of companies are not prepared to not have income. Businesses going out of business aren't coming back, along with the jobs they provided.

[fxtentacle]

People skills & Frustration tolerance

1-2% of society are always on the verge of depression, as that is just how gauss distributions work. But chances are, it'll soon be 10%. Google therapeutic shopping and you know that people are willing to spend a lot of money to feel better.

So if you can handle hearing the whining of depressed people without it dragging you down too much, offer to do free video chat with lonely people now. Your goal isn't to change their situation in any way, but by telling you about it and feeling heard, you can help them change their feelings about their situation. So you mostly just listen, reveal related facts about yourself, and ask caring questions.

Once the crisis is over, your newfound ability to stay cheerful in the presence of adversity and your ability to get along well with different kinds of people will be a very valuable asset for romance and work.

Add cooking and laundry and those 4 traits are what I believe most HN readers will be lacking in comparison to the normal population.

[FiberBundle]

I'd recommend learning about markets and economics. My suspicion is that states will continue to implement all steps necessary to contain the virus over the next 18 months and bail out all businesses and consumers in order to keep the productivity of the economy close to the level prior to the outbreak. Depending on how difficult it will be to contain the virus, this might require funds on an unprecedented scale in modern times. It's difficult to predict how eager investors will be to finance these deficits. Obviously something like a hyperinflation scenario is completely out of the question for a developed state like the US and there will likely be more deflationary pressure over the next few years, but at some point states will have to deleverage and I'm inclined to say that they will probably do this using higher inflation rates, in which case you can probably profit a lot from knowing about markets and economics.

[profchaos69]

Do you have any advice on where to read up on this sort of thing? I’ve always been interested but never acted upon it. Now seems like a good time to understand more about how our world actually works in terms of the economy

[smdz]

Learn to learn.

And then practice learning. Our brains have very high capacity to learn, adapt and forget quite a lot - just believe that you can, and you will. All you need is focused effort. You only need to prove that belief once to yourself. I know this sounds philosophical, but it works.

Becoming an expert in an area is quite another thing. For that you need to evaluate the benefits.

> new state of things

Nobody can predict the new state of things. We can make an educated guess. And my guess is that software skills will be useful for many decades to come. You may have to get better to stay ahead of the competition and that might be more work. The economic impact of the lockdowns has already started hurting small businesses as contracts are being cancelled/paused. They can only take 2 more months of beating, but to clear economic uncertainty we all have to be back to normal working within next 15 days- that is simply not possible. So get ready for small biz to cut/die first followed by the bigger ones.

> will echo for many years to come

I think the worst is yet to show up, the next two months will show where we stand as a world on the pandemic. Right now we only see virus as a health issue, but the virus effect is also shaking up the geopolitical state of the world and questioning global trade and policies. We will probably come out of it quicker than before. The economic effects will be huge, but not necessarily bad for every country.

[igotsideas]

Like this a lot. Anything that has helped you learn how to learn?