Ask HN: What technology is mocked today but will be common within 20 years?

[panabee]

Electricity, computers, and the Internet were all roundly mocked at one point, but now those anti-critics are dismissed as myopic and backward.

What technology, if any, will make today's critics look foolish in 20 years?

[logicalmonster]

I don't know if it's "mocked" exactly, but if nuclear energy is not much more common in 20 years, something has gone very wrong in the world akin to a major economic collapse, famine, a real plague, or a world war.

Nuclear energy is something that should unite both sides of the political aisle: whether or not you're scared of climate change, everybody wants access to cheap energy to power industry and human needs.

[danShumway]

Onions. People devalue onions, but they add a deeper taste and texture to pretty much every single stir fry or stew.

There are very few dishes that can't be enhanced by adding just a little bit of diced onion (even many sweet or salty dishes), and many dishes benefit from adding fresh onion as well. There are also so many different varieties of onions, and each has its own subtly different taste. Learning which kind of onion is the right kind to use for which dish is a fun and rewarding pastime. Not to mention that they can be caramelized in a non-stick pan without adding oil, which is pretty useful.

In 20 years, people will no longer be sleeping on this, and as a result onions will be much more expensive than they are today. I've started going out at night and burying onions in the front yard of my apartment complex so that I'll be able to cash out when this happens.

[JoshuaDavid]

If only there were some way to turn money today into a guarantee of onions at some time in the future.

[daemoens]

Onions are already used heavily in almost all cuisine though? It might just be America/Europe who use them a bit less than the rest of the world, but they're still used a lot.

[glonq]

I used to tie an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time.

[enviclash]

How come you do not mention garlic?

[is_true]

I'm from south America and here we use onions as the base for a lot of dishes

[octokatt]

Personal assistants like Siri or Hello Google.

They’re not be leveraged well now, but having an assistant to remind you about a complex pill regimen or physical therapy exercises will be huge for medical care (for better and worse).

Even stuff like adding things to a grocery list, then mapping across to a shopping app is mostly possible now with issues; in twenty years, that barrier will be gone.

—-

Also, the Yanko sink/toilet to save water. We gotta stop wasting drinkable water.

https://www.yankodesign.com/2010/01/20/all-in-one-loo-with-a...

[jschveibinz]

- CO2 harvesting - Desalination - Nuclear power (fission & fusion) - Robotic labor & automation - Sustainable 3d printed structures - EV’s - Urban cooling chimneys - Plant-based food tech - Genetic engineering - Synthetic human organs - Weight loss meds - Synthetic blood - Augmented cognition - Robotic medicine - Online higher education …as a start

[mtmail]

Google Glasses got mocked 10 years ago, maybe in 10 years AR glasses will be common.

[muzani]

AI content generation most likely.

The DALL-E/GitHub Copilot conversations are a nice hint. They were mocked for being if/else statements or "a solution looking for a problem" 1-2 years ago. Today, we're having conversations on whether they're moral; a hint that they actually represent a threat to artists.

I think they'll probably become similar to tractors or digital marketing in the future. Despite tractors, farmers still have to do hard labor, they just make more output from their endurance. Digital marketing didn't kill offline marketing. But they'll all still change the nature of jobs.

[s__s]

Good art (regardless of medium) is fundamentally about communication. It allows us to communicate ideas and emotions in abstract ways bypassing the limitations of language. Computer generated art can’t accomplish that. I don’t see any real threat here to artists.

Granted, computers can certainly generate something that looks cool or just pleasing to the eye. Something you might want to hang up on your wall or something to add a splash of colour to the room. In that respect I suppose there’s some limited threat.

[neojebfkekeej]

It’s unlikely that blockchain / NFT’s will become widely adopted. History proves that human’s like a central authority, just not one that actively works against them.

[systemvoltage]

I think the evidence is not so clear, it seems circumstantial and situational on what humans prefer. Humans invented the internet and email which is extremely decentralized. Datacenters are centralized but edge computing is decentralized. Constitutionalists across the world preferred dencentralizing powers of the central/federal governments to a certain degree. We like decentralizing supply chains to reduce risks but also centralizing them for reducing costs (supplier-to-supplier logistics). The world is literred with examples from either end of the spectrum.

[mutt2016]

Fascinating. I hadn't considered this. Humans like central authority, and if dictators and monarchs were fair there would be no democracy. Extrapolating on this thought, could a democratic blockchain work? I can't even fathom "how", but some sort of ability to elect an entity who votes on your behalf. With an opposition, etc...

[RestlessMind]

Crypto / Blockchains.

Since this question routinely comes up on HN, I gathered a few legit examples[0] of how Crypto is helping.

I am also willing to have a bet about overall Crypto market cap[1] at the end of this decade (11:59pm PST on 31st Dec 2020) - I bet it will be more than 1T USD vs 932B today.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32406095 [1] the number at the top of https://coinmarketcap.com/

[muzani]

With today's inflation rates, I'm surprised crypto is in a bear market.

I think 2018 was a legitimate run when we were all thinking of legit use cases and arguing whether they were practical. The last few years were more of a bubble, with NFTs and shitcoins all over the place.

Crypto seems like something that would benefit from Gustafson's Law. Digital finance infrastructure is not yet good enough to make it useful. Like Instagram relying on web and app tech, crypto still needs lots of changes in how we deal with money and how governments treat it.

[tarunmuvvala]

This is depended on a lot of fiat defaulting and people using these as mode of transaction.

What are you thoughts on the next wave?

[archon1410]

but... 2020 is already gone. did you mean 2030?

[countvonbalzac]

Maybe VR or AR. Maybe people will actually be wearing AR glasses and those will be the new smart phones.

[abraxas]

Almost certainly self driving vehicles of all kinds. Even in the absence of any major ML algorithm breakthrough, I believe there is enough work already accomplished where the industry can grind out a well functioning solution in 20 years. This kind of time frame is long enough where I think that level 5 fully self driven cars will be available from major brands at prices that will make it affordable even for middle class buyers.

[jaxn]

The downvotes you received are the proof you are right.

[WheelsAtLarge]

Vertical farming, it's a great way to grow food for the masses without having to clear land. It reduces the water and fuel needed to feed a city.

[tarunmuvvala]

I am curious why will this scale for all plants. There are a lot limitations for the type of plants they can grow.

What are the factors that will lead to the growth of vertical farming?

[elzbardico]

Internal Combustion Engines running on fossil fuels

[tarunmuvvala]

Works for the developed world who have buying power.

I am not sure how will it work for the developing world where the buying power is very less.

I love the fact that the EV bring a lot efficiency.

[solarmist]

Yes, hopefully in a niche role though.

[version_five]

> Electricity, computers, and the Internet were all roundly mocked at one point

What?

[RestlessMind]

"by 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine." - a Nobel prize winner in 1998.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-eff...

[acchow]

I don't know if electricity was mocked, but certainly the early internet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOx2GUaVTi8

[lmarcos]

UV umbrellas for summer. People love getting tanned, and you'll see almost nobody protecting themselves against the sun in summer. In 20 years, with 50 degrees Celsius during summer for consecutive weeks, you won't get out of your house in summer (and if you have to, you'll go out using long sleeve t-shirts, a cap and a UV umbrella). Now you're probably laughing... exactly my point.

[heavyset_go]

I already avoid the sun as it is, so I don't find it laughable. I think we're slowly acknowledging deleterious effects of UV absorption versus the desire to tan.

[schwartzworld]

You could have said the same thing about long-sleeve swimsuits when I was a kid. Both my kids wear long sleeves in the water and it's starting to get much more common.

[dexwiz]

Fusion. The current pace of research is extremely slow. The Wendelstein 7-X, one of the most advanced fusion experiments, was designed on super computers almost 30 years ago, since which huge advances have been made in materials and simulations. Also fusion has always had an uphill battle against entrenched petrochemical interests, that may change in the coming decades.

[bjourne]

Recumbent vehicles like velomobiles: https://trisled.com.au/hpv-type/road/ These bikes are insanely fast. An untrained person can easily keep up with Tour de France riders. Now add a small 300W electric motor to it and you don't need a car for most transportation at all. Their Achilles' heel is that carbon fiber production is labor intensive so velomobiles are expensive since their frames are made of carbon fiber. If someone could automate carbon fiber manufacturing and bring down costs they could revolutionize urban transportation.

[heavyset_go]

As a cyclist, I know a few people with these. The consensus I get is that they're basically invisible to trucks and SUVs, and riders are only comfortable riding them on trails closed to cyclists and pedestrians only. I certainly wouldn't ride one in mixed traffic even in the most bike friendly cities in the US.

[heavyset_go]

Hydrogen for fuel.

[_hypx]

Probably the big one. All the critics of it assume everyone will be a millionaire-adjacent or better and have home charging. In reality, the vast majority of people need fuel.

[BizarroLand]

mRNA immunizations. I think we're right around the corner from finding a lot of really great and useful applications for that technology.

20 years from now we should have enough data on its applications that there will be simple treatments and cures for many lifelong afflictions.

[version_five]

What is something they've reliably addressed now? For all the praise heaped on them, they didn't really get us out of covid for more than a few months, and I haven't seen any other breakthroughs. It seems more like something that sounded promising and failed. Is there something that we're on the cusp of that will change that?

[iancmceachern]

Robotic surgury. Robots will be ubiquitous in the operating room, and more than just the "dumb" teleoperated ones we have now, but ones that watch what's going on and help.