Ask HN: Where does everyone go after mass layoffs?

[hnthrow10282910]

I can’t say I understand why trillion dollar companies are doing mass layoffs, but I guess that’s why I’m not a business man.

Where do these people get jobs if tens of thousands of people flood the market at the same time? Is it a blood bath? Curious on peoples thoughts who lived through dot com bubble, as I was only about 6 years old. I’ve been through the leetcode grind and system design grind, etc, but with that, is it still even possible to get a good paying tech job in this downturn?

[gregjor]

Plenty of jobs out there, but people who get laid off may have to scale back their expectations and demands. One day you get to work on your passion project, get free meals and pet care, work from home, code in your favorite language and framework. A month or two later you start looking seriously at the boring jobs and unsexy workplaces.

I was in multimedia and online marketing in 2001, then the bubble burst and the company I worked at laid a bunch of people off. Lots of people I had worked with before got laid off from their jobs too. Companies went out of business. I went back to where my career started, in enterprise logistics, Oracle and Java. Good pay but not sexy or fun, no free meals or work from home. I felt bad for some of the younger and less experienced people I got laid off with, they didn't have the domain experience or network of contacts I had -- they had fallen backwards into cool high-paying jobs out of school when money was pouring into anything internet. One junior programmer had to sell his Ducati, get a bus pass, and ended up in retail at Borders.

The job market can accommodate a lot of people with tech skills, but many people who just got laid off, or will as the belt-tightening continues, will face a kind of culture shock. They got to work at Disneyland for a while, but now the options will look more like Office Space.

[ihatepython]

> One junior programmer had to sell his Ducati, get a bus pass, and ended up in retail at Borders.

And then Borders went out of business.

[twelve40]

> Plenty of jobs out there

Do you know that? That there are plenty of jobs out there for the laid-off people? or just, you know, making shit up.

[gaws]

> Plenty of jobs out there

For people with the right skill set. Otherwise, this is a bullshit.

[rafiki6]

It's important to put this in perspective.

1- layoffs are happening primarily to non-technologist roles

2- even with the layoffs, we're still no where near head counts for 2019.

Companies are taking advantage of the macro situation to clean house. It serves a dual purpose. Get rid of low performing employees and clean up any non essential functions, while also pleasing investors.

[dehrmann]

> even with the layoffs, we're still no where near head counts for 2019.

So then the question is where did all these people come from in just 2 years?

[EnKopVand]

> I can’t say I understand why trillion dollar companies are doing mass layoffs

Most companies finance new projects with a combination of three things. Own capital, investor money and loans. Right now interest rates are high, I'm European so I can't speak for the US, but in some areas of the Eurozone the interest rates hit 12% a month ago. At that point it becomes impossible to utilise the loan part, because it's just too expensive. The investor money are similarly either slowing down or disappearing, not so much because they aren't around or that they don't have money, but because they are waiting to see what happens. This is fuelled not only by the loan part of the equation, but also by the inflation and global supply lines pushing the costs of projects to a point that has eaten a healthy chunk of the would-be investor profits, or put in another way, investors don't want to risk their money for 5% return when it was a 50% return a year ago. Lastly there is the own capital, one way to maintain this is to cut the work force, which aligns with how you need a smaller work force as things slow down.

Where do people go? Well, typically they find new jobs. Some change professions entirely. Some retire. A few unfortunate people break down and head down dark paths. But really, it's not unlike layoffs in good periods, there is just more of it with fewer opportunities.

> it still even possible to get a tech job in this downturn?

As with most things this depends on your situation. What is your educational background, your skillset and your history of work. I can't speak for the US, but here in Europe some countries you could double our amount of good programmers and still need more.

> good paying

As with everything, this depends on the amount of people who can do what you do, but compensation doesn't necessarily go down during harder periods. But it does mean you'll likely have to justify what you do to earn it more than you did before.

[unmole]

> Own capital, investor money and loans.

What's the difference between own capital and investor money for a company?

[hnthrow10282910]

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I guess it’s good to never get too comfortable.

[yooloo]

Which part of euro zone has an interest rate of 12%

[datalopers]

To the pub, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over.

[hnthrow10282910]

Cheers

[bombcar]

According to this: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/... , there are 174,400 computer programmer jobs in the United States alone.

Not everyone being laid off is a programmer; in fact, I suspect that much of it is in recruiting, HR, and such.

And there are tons of "related jobs" - https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...

Many people who get laid off go to work where most everyone else is working, and "unsexy" companies you've never heard of.

[iLoveOncall]

174,000 is really a lot less than I imagined.

[cultofthecow]

> Where does everyone go after mass layoffs?

As affected one, I can say with a full confidence - straight to the beach

[orionblastar]

Tech companies had a bubble when COVID 19 was first talked about. People stayed at home and used social networks. Now that COVID 19 is under control, the bubble burst and layoffs happened because people went back to work and stopped using social networks. Thus less advertising income. Less income means layoffs.

[dehrmann]

It's interesting that our layoffs were just delayed 2.5 years, though out of overinvestment rather than necessity.

One fear for the broader economy is that there's a lot of money that wasn't made in tech this year that was made last year. Not just layoffs, but a drop in RSU values. When essential workers were laid off in the spring of 2020, it was easier to absorb the economic hit and provide government support because they didn't make that much. Now we have tech workers cutting back massively on discretionary spending after seeing their TC drop by 25% (or 100%).

Normally I'd ask where tech workers spend their money and try to short that, but the main answers I have are housing and Teslas.

[giantg2]

I'd image many laid off individuals retire if they can... or go part time, lower paid, ect.

I have seen some go to contracting firms. Sure, some projects are getting shelved. But a lot are just getting restructured to be cheaper on the labor part or provide more headcount flexibility for the company. There really is a lot of talent shuffling and reshuffling that happens.

[fairramone]

In the 2000s, many younger people (sub-30s) moved to the bay area to participate in the boom.

When things went sideways, many returned to their home state and/or moved back in with their parents. The local San Francisco rental market subsequently crashed.

[dragonwriter]

There is no time from the 2000s on where the SF rental market crashed; median rents dropped slightly after the 2008 financial crisis as they did nationally, but bounced back faster than the national trend.

[spaceman_2020]

My brother went to work for Home Depot, helping them manage a crumbling tech infrastructure. Its unsexy and your work will never be visible to actual customers but it’s rewarding in its own way.

[TradingPlaces]

Walmart has over 1000 job openings with the phrase “software engineer” in the title. Not all tech jobs are at tech companies

[djohnston]

Eng isn't getting laid of anywhere close to the volume of "HR" types and ops roles.

[flashgordon]

Or they go back to country (If on an indentured servitude work visa and then get into unsexy jobs:( )