top | item 34067707

Ask HN: Given AI advancements, is a master’s degree in CS worthless?

63 points| lisplist | 3 years ago

Hi all,

I’ve got a BS in Computer Science and have been considering pursuing a Master’s degree part-time with a focus on ML/AI.

I know the common narrative is that a Master’s in CS really isn’t worth it if you’re just looking for a pay raise. However machine learning is an area I’m interested in but lack the requisite background. I just really worry the degree will mostly be worthless by the time I graduate considering the rate at which AI is advancing.

The degree would mostly be for personal knowledge/fulfillment, but I don’t want to bother with it if we’re all going to be unemployable in a few years anyways. Another alternative I’m considering is learning HVAC repair as a fallback career.

What are your thoughts?

117 comments

order
[+] elehack|3 years ago|reply
Disclaimer: I am a CS professor.

I don't think AI advancements will cause a problem for the value of the degree (or rather, if they do, then it wasn't a very good MS degree). The value of formal university CS education done well, at both BS and MS levels, is learning skills in a context that integrates those skills into a knowledge framework that transcends any particular technology and hopefully outlasts several trend changes. The specific ML algorithms you would learn in an ML-focused MS will likely be out-off-date soon; the training on problem formulation, data preparation, fundamental limits of learning, and the theory of how ML works will not only outlast many technology shifts, but give you a good framework for navigating those shifts and integrating new advances into your knowledge.

There are likely many programs that would not provide this kind of foundation. But in understanding in general the value of an MS, this is how I would advise a student to think about it. (and on MS vs BS, BS usually provides some opportunity for specialization but is very much a generalist degree; an MS provides more opportunity for specialization and credentialing on that specialization.)

[+] verelo|3 years ago|reply
asks a drug dealer How do you feel legalization will impact your business? /sarcasm

Disclaimer: I dropped out, but i do wish i finished just because it's sad to now be 36 and I hate leaving things undone.

In all seriousness, i think higher ed has issues to resolve regardless of whatever AI does to it. The ongoing imbalance between the value one can extract from a degree and what you get out of it has been mostly impacting students other than CS or other engineering degrees, but with a slower economy we may end up sucked into the issue other fields have long suffered from. Speak to anyone in the environmental field, hard to believe this is /the issue/ of our time yet we value is so poorly.

[+] thereisnospork|3 years ago|reply
>The value of formal university CS education done well, at both BS and MS levels, is learning skills in a context that integrates those skills into a knowledge framework that transcends any particular technology and hopefully outlasts several trend changes.

While I don't disagree with your main point re the value of a CS degree, this is the same argument verbatim given by every English, History, and Underwater basket weaving professor.

[+] cholantesh|3 years ago|reply
Outside of ML/AI what would you say are areas of CS in which a lot of active research is being conducted?
[+] mjr00|3 years ago|reply
> I just really worry the degree will mostly be worthless by the time I graduate considering the rate at which AI is advancing... The degree would mostly be for personal knowledge/fulfillment, but I don’t want to bother with it if we’re all going to be unemployable in a few years anyways.

I went to university from 2005-2008. Back then, with dot-com scars still fresh in everyone's mind, an extremely common piece of "advice" I received was: Don't bother going into programming; software development is going to all be outsourced to offshore developers. You'll never make more than $50k/year in your career as a developer, the competition from India and Bangladesh will be too high.

As much as futurists hate to admit it, coding AI is still way worse at many things than even the now-near-universally-loathed "outsourced dev" boogeyman. Your job as a software developer isn't to write functions that reverse a binary tree or solve the Towers of Hanoi puzzle. I haven't seen any evidence that AI can evaluate a legacy codebase and determine what the best integration path forward is. I haven't seen any evidence that an AI can figure out how to put together a backwards-compatible API. I haven't seen any evidence that an API can put together a build pipeline.

Your question is based on an assumption that because ChatGPT can spit out some pretty impressive stuff that an entire career path isn't going to be viable. I will tell you emphatically that assumption is wrong. Spend a few years in the industry and you'll understand that ChatGPT is impressive, but only touches about 5-10% of what a software developer really needs to do.

It will be an important tool for developers going forward, and maybe reduce the overall number of devs needed in the world due to increased efficiency, but no, it's not going to replace software developers. Not even juniors.

[+] 22SAS|3 years ago|reply
This! Tech influencers on YouTube are using these bad examples, to scare people into believing that ChatGPT will take over programming jobs.

The day when AI technology can fix bugs in a multi-million line codebase, make improvements to it; that's the day when I will start worrying. That day is far, far away.

[+] cmrdporcupine|3 years ago|reply
I think it's quite possible that "code monkey" type jobs will shrink in number as automation of boilerplate tasks accelerates. I think a lot of "full stack developer" jobs are in large part full of these types of tasks: know how to wire up the framework and shuttle data from point A to point B in the canonical fashion. That work will still exist, but it will be primarily supervisory. I hope.

I think there will still need to be highly qualified people 'directing' the tools, teaching, and determining architecture.

I suspect there'll be less of us, and the job will change, but the market need will still be there. I think in this context a masters will indeed be quite useful.

(Saying all of this as a person who has gone their whole career without a degree.)

[+] philomath_mn|3 years ago|reply
I remember in 2008ish my older brother wrinkled his nose when I mentioned I wanted to learn programming. He said something about programmers just did what they were told and it wasn't a good career choice. Sure glad I didn't listen
[+] boplicity|3 years ago|reply
I think the right question isn't whether or not AI such as ChatGPT will replace developers. The right question is how much more efficient it can make a developer, especially when AI tools are purpose built for developers, and those developers are good at using such tools.
[+] n8cpdx|3 years ago|reply
I thought masters degree was just a trick/glide path to get a visa?

My own experience is that masters is for people who need to immigrate to the US for work and can afford a masters degree. When I was in school, the masters level CS students weren’t expected to know CS well going in, so it was kind of like cramming a full CS degree into a two year window… with not amazing results. Obviously that depends on the student. Also lots of students who just didn’t want to work professionally yet, and you can get student loans to keep working on a masters degree.

All that is to say I’m extremely surprised by the people saying the degree is valuable on the merits and not for some other instrumental reason.

P.S. regardless of education level, programming, at least in software companies, is an extremely privileged career regardless of pay. Hours, work environment, remote availability, treatment of labor by management are all better than I can imagine even comparably-paid trades positions, especially if you’ve already invested in the bachelors. I think people in the software engineering bubble can, sometimes, fail to appreciate how good they have it relative to others (especially if you get caught up comparing between FAANG or have ever complained about an equity package).

[+] killjoywashere|3 years ago|reply
> I know the common narrative is that a Master’s in CS really isn’t worth it

Having interviewed a bunch of job candidates with CS Masters and CS Bachelors for jobs in a fairly small, research-y group, and a shmear of PhDs, level of education absolutely matters. The more education, the more prepared people are to think well on their feet. The average high school dropout can think. Thinking well requires training. Generally, CS Masters hits a sweet spot: they can hit the ground running and mold themselves into a job. They may need a bit more guidance to understand the space around the problem. The PhDs have often self-selected into the job and have a good grip on the problem but take a bit more guidance on what to not do. The bachelors folks need strong leadership and team around them. While you may get that in larger orgs, if it's a smaller org, that may not be reliably available at all times.

> considering is learning HVAC repair as a fallback career.

Having had HVAC guys install and repair A/C systems at various homes, I think you would quickly find the baseline work mind-numbing. That said, if you make it through the apprenticeship, you might be in a good position to build a startup.

[+] PartiallyTyped|3 years ago|reply
From experience, people with CS Master's are able to navigate uncertainty better than bachelors folks, show more initiative and are better at accumulating information, though I do note that I may be biased.
[+] topkai22|3 years ago|reply
Accountants used to spend an enormous amount of time manually doing arithmetic and balancing spreadsheets. When the first computerized spreadsheets came out, it was a massive improvement in accountant efficiency and you would’ve expected there to be less accountants at the end of the revolution. Instead my understanding is that there are more accountants per capita today than there were 50 years ago.

Similarly, even without chatGPT, most individual programming tasks are easier today than they were 50 years ago. No punchcards is an amazing development. However, there are way more software engineers today then there were 50 years ago.

It’s no guarantee, but often an improvement in efficiency in a resource does not reduce the overall usage of that resource, because it increases demand for that resource. It’s hard to predict what effect a new technology like AI driven programming will have, but it’s a range of outcomes that includes increasing demand for adjacent skills as well as reducing demand.

I doubt a CS masters skills will forever be as highly remunerative as it has been, and the work will be different, but that is different than becoming a less valuable than an HVAC certification.

An AI/ML focus seems especially valuable as an understanding of how these new systems actually work, how to best use them, and what the pitfalls may be is likely going to be a hot skill set for some time.

[+] CSMastermind|3 years ago|reply
Current AI models are like an airplane and programming jobs are like flying to the moon. No number of incremental advancements on current technology are going to replace programming jobs. That only seems possible if you don't understand the details.

You need a catalogically different technology (a rocket) to do space travel.

A layperson seeing the first airplane and rapid advancement in that industry could easily think, "look we've been flying higher and higher, soon airplanes will fly to other planets." If you were to point out that that's not how airplanes work they might retort that people used to think flight was impossible at all.

We're at the Wright flyer in 1903 moment in ML/AI right now. It will get a lot better an change many things but it will ultimately still be just a tool of programming rather than a replacement for it until someone invents AGI, and even as someone who is optimistic about that happening, I'd guess we're still decades away.

[+] dan-g|3 years ago|reply
> The degree would mostly be for personal knowledge/fulfillment

I feel like this may answer your own question? It may be trite, but even in a world where AI makes us obsolete, there's still value in doing something fulfilling that you're interested in. Just because DALL-E 2 can replicate an oil painting doesn't mean that there isn't personal value in physically painting anymore.

[+] foenix|3 years ago|reply
> Another alternative I’m considering is learning HVAC repair as a fallback career.

Why not both? My neighbor configures HVAC for datacenters as a living. From what I've understood in our chats, there's a lot of expert system processing going on. It's only going to grow as ML/AI does. When there's gold rush, don't invest in gold, invest in pickaxes.

[+] chasd00|3 years ago|reply
my father in law was an "HVAC guy" and got to know some commercial real estate owners through networking. I think he did $250k/year working when he wanted. Granted, it was very hard physical work.
[+] rcarr|3 years ago|reply
No the AI still has to work on an Operating System and people will always need computer science to understand the fundamentals of how these things work.

Can’t comment on the state of machine learning/ai as it is not my field of expertise but I would also guess no. The mathematical basis on which ai is based is not going to radically change. Linear algebra etc is always going to be useful no matter what happens.

Neil Gaiman says that he visualised becoming a writer as climbing a mountain and weighed up every decision as whether it took him closer to the summit. I would say you need to get clarity on what your ultimate goal is/which mountain you want to climb and then evaluate taking the masters in relation to that. We can never be sure if we are going to make it to the top regardless so you’ve got to have a little bit of faith. And you could very well fail at whatever your back up plan is so you might as well take a chance on the thing you actually enjoy.

[+] constantcrying|3 years ago|reply
>I just really worry the degree will mostly be worthless by the time I graduate considering the rate at which AI is advancing.

A masters is two years. What significant AI developments could possibly happen that would reduce job security?

Do you plan on your job being about writing 20 liners solving the most common CS questions on SO? If yes, SO has already replaced you, if no, what competition from AI do you have?

I don't want to make any grand predictions, but current generation LLMs will not make a dent into programmer jobs.

[+] coding123|3 years ago|reply
A few years ago we had GANs that generated meaningless code, but was somewhat legible, but didn't compile.

A couple years ago the pointless code started to compile.

A year ago we got copilot.

Past week or so I have been pasting React components into Chat GPT and it successfully tells me what it does, and I ask it to change it, and it can change my program for me.

I would say in a couple of years AI may be in complete control of entire Git repos for backends, front ends, etc... and you will be able to modify it by telling it the new stuff, in plain english.

I mean right now it's just the same thing as Stable Diffusion, but with code and so it's "mostly right". When that crosses over, it's going to take out this profession. I honestly don't know what to do.

[+] constantcrying|3 years ago|reply
AI which produces 99% correct code is still useless.

Current LLMs will not threaten programming jobs in any way.

[+] throwawayoaky|3 years ago|reply
Lot of confidence that our careers are going to be OK.. I'm suspicious because if there were sufficient AI to replace us, we would be in the position of our salaries depending on us not understanding that fact.

Seems to me that the only thing stopping AI from doing our jobs in 5 years will be the legal department.. at that point I guess my last job will be to set up the on-prem/cloud infra that runs the model. AI doesn't change the requirement of owning your own data. After that, I dunno. What jobs will be left? AI trainer, mascot at Disneyland, and CEO?

I might have the time horizon wrong but I do think it's going to be a bloodbath. There's nothing about previous industrial revolutions to suggest it would be anything but. And if you think you'll be able to see it coming, have a look at https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/ . This problem space is starting to feel less like fusion and more like flight

[+] realharo|3 years ago|reply
Are you picturing a world where companies are still making mostly the same kind of products as today, just with robots instead of people?

The change AI brings could be lot more fundamental than that. What that means for jobs though, is really hard to predict.

[+] ilaksh|3 years ago|reply
Instead of thinking about jobs, think about startups that solve problems. You can "hire" the perfect AI or robots as employees.
[+] epgui|3 years ago|reply
> a Master’s in CS really isn’t worth it if you’re just looking for a pay raise

Nope.

> the degree will mostly be worthless by the time I graduate

A Master's degree's value is not in the information-content you managed to download into your brain. Its value doesn't have to expire as a domain advances. As with anything academic, most of the value depends on how much sweat and time you put into the thing (independently of how good the classes or profs are), and if you do it right, your competitive advantage will be in having learned how to learn better or faster.

> The degree would mostly be for personal knowledge/fulfillment

Assuming you can afford to study, and to do it well, this is the only thing you need to focus on.

> Another alternative I’m considering is learning HVAC repair as a fallback career

This comment makes me wonder whether you're being honest with yourself about what your motivation is. Nothing stops you from learning about HVAC as well, if you're interested in that.

[+] lisplist|3 years ago|reply
My motivation is learning useful, relevant skills that

A) Are intellectual fulfilling

B) Help me remain employable in the current rapidly changing world of tech

I brought up HVAC repair because it’s a skill that is at least currently difficult to automate and pays reasonably well if you own your own business.

[+] robjan|3 years ago|reply
AIs are not going to take your job (but may change the nature) for the forseeable future and a degree in Computer Science is still valuable. It's always valuable to diversify your skillset but in general it's highly likely that you will get more out of a CS degree than an HVAC qualification if that's what you're interested in.
[+] malux85|3 years ago|reply
It’s still worth it because the value in a CS degree is NOT the domain knowledge you will learn, it’s the fact that it will teach you how to think.

You will learn (or at least be exposed to):

problem decomposition, systems thinking, good interface design, encapsulation, abstraction and generalisation, optimisation, algorithmic complexity, time/space trade offs, searching algorithms, and much much more

All of the apply to many fields outside of programming, I have used binary search to to bisect real world problems, systems thinking to help with social interactions, abstraction thinking to plan life events and optimisation to make sure all my tasks get done efficiently.

Let me tell you something really, really important about university: it’s about learning to think, NOT about gathering and hoarding some domain knowledge and then exploiting that for the rest of your career. The worst type of university graduate is the one who spends a few years learning some bits of knowledge in a field and then sanctifies that knowledge and sits there with a sense of entitlement, hoarding what they think is valuable - everyone can look up stuff on Google now, hoarding knowledge to appear valuable is a mugs game, it’s not 1850 anymore where this strategy worked.

The valuable part is learning all of the different ways to think and then applying them and keeping your mind fluid and flexible, and I think of all of the degrees, CS is one of the best for this

[+] qzw|3 years ago|reply
AI may take over all programming jobs one day (assuming we don’t destroy human civilization first), but we’re still at the Ford Model T stage of AI development. Do you think in a few years we’d just have CEOs mumbling to AIs and nobody in between? Far more likely is that developers will use AI enabled tools to generate more and better quality code in the same amount of time. In that scenario, having a Master’s in ML/AI would absolutely be an advantage.
[+] serioussecurity|3 years ago|reply
The masters might help you better explore why this is not a realistic concern :) I got a lot of value from mine.

The risk in CS that I worry about right now is suppressed wages as more folks enter the field and the large companies get better at paying us less.

[+] lisplist|3 years ago|reply
This is a big concern of mine. Maybe all the dev jobs don’t go away, but our wages are suppressed enough that I might as well do something else.
[+] hacoo|3 years ago|reply
Yes, get the degree (as long as you’re ok with the cost / debt burden, which you did not mention).

It’s very, very unlikely IMO that AI will take our jobs in the next 5-10 years. But I think the demand for good ML engineers will stay strong. Having a master’s in this is a big leg up, it’s hard for people to learn ML well without formal education.

Also, education is a great way to ride out the current crappy job market.

[+] bad416f1f5a2|3 years ago|reply
> Also, education is a great way to ride out the current crappy job market.

Don’t sleep on this.

In 2008 I had a few friends go back for higher education rather than stay at/take low quality jobs. They graduated with additional debt, but also with credentials that accelerated their job search and earnings during the recovery.

If your personal situation allows it, it’s a good idea to consider.

[+] lisplist|3 years ago|reply
This has definitely been on my mind. A Master’s might help you stand out a little more when everyone is fighting for roles in the downturn.
[+] JoelMcCracken|3 years ago|reply
So, so much of our job is not writing code, it's understanding what is going on, communicating it to non-technical people, etc. It is very clear that these tools don't have an understanding what they're doing, it is all an advanced form of pattern recognition.

Some of our jobs may be automated by AI in the next N years, but I think we are quite a ways away our jobs being truly replaced, as opposed to simply augmented.

Don't forget that also in many ways these tools may (and are likely to) spawn the need for more programmers, while decreasing the total costs of development, but we will absolutely still be needed.

Remember, a computer can't be "fired". It can't be "blamed" when the site goes down, etc etc. We work in human organizations and fill in many needs beyond simply the time we spend in emacs.

[+] adverbly|3 years ago|reply
> Another alternative I’m considering is learning HVAC repair as a fallback career.

Not sure if this is a joke or not. If it's not a joke, I think you should go into HVAC. AI/ML is a competitive academic field, and only the top few percent of people are going to make an impact. It will take extraordinary passion to make the cut, and if you're the type of person who is wavering, looking for a career change, and seriously considering something like HVAC repair, please save yourself the pain and go for HVAC - it's a solid option with far less demands or risk.

[+] cityofdelusion|3 years ago|reply
> please save yourself the pain and go for HVAC - it's a solid option with far less demands or risk.

The physical demands of the trades are very real. Many people retire with disintegrated knees, backs and life-long chronic pain. The risk of learning some AI/ML is basically zero compared to it -- a couple years of an income hit and ego damage.