gesticulator | 3 years ago | on: The collapse of SVB exposes the largest crack in the economy
gesticulator's comments
gesticulator | 3 years ago
gesticulator | 4 years ago | on: A fuel spill from the U.S. Navy poisons the water of thousands in Hawaiʻi
gesticulator | 4 years ago | on: Bird populations declining fast across North America
“Researchers also found that common birds from just 12 families, such as blackbirds, sparrows and finches, account for over 90 percent—or over 2.5 billion birds—of total population decline. Experts believe that habitat loss due to agricultural development and intensification is most likely the driving factor.”
The result was a calamitous famine, and it seems big Ag is on a similar path, but in a wildly different context.
gesticulator | 4 years ago | on: Will the rich world’s worker deficit last?
gesticulator | 5 years ago | on: Why the Yuppie Elite Dismiss Bitcoin
The main issue I have here is that the knowledge bit glosses over the "high trust in the system/high knowledge" quadrant quite a bit. One perspective from those folks that's missing is that Bitcoin's day of reckoning will inevitably be if and when it becomes a material threat to the system, that the system itself will react to (1) suppress Bitcoin and (2) replace its own currency with one that re-establishes trust.
The history for currencies around the world broadly follow the pattern we're seeing unfold today: a "hard" currency becomes devalued, typically due to some event like war, loses trust, and the system replaces it with a new currency that can re-establish trust. Some examples are the greenback-dollar relationship, the mark-rentenmark-reichmark, and the 1994 Brazilian real.
The other shoe here is that, as part of the playbook for establishing new currencies during a crisis, the governments always suppress alternative currencies, whether those were bank-issued notes in the 19th century US, FDR's massive gold confiscation, or re-valuing debts in terms of the newly established currency - all options are in play, and there is basically nothing that the government will stop at to run it's playbook to stabilize the currency in crisis.
In that context, maybe the smart/high trust people think "Crypto is a cool technology, but it can be used to create the next central bank currency so why do I care about this one when anyone can create a new coin" and also consciously or unconsciously know that the government is going to take massive action to suppress a $1MM bitcoin.
Some good references for how currencies (and contract denominated in the currency, like debt & assets) evolve in various crises throughout history: "Principals for Navigating Big Debt Crises" by Ray Dalio, "Debt: The First 5000 Years" by David Graeber, Perry Mehrling's course "Economics of Money and Banking."
gesticulator | 5 years ago | on: IBM Is Already Gutting Red Hat and Firing Employees Without Warning
gesticulator | 5 years ago | on: I Am Deleting the Blog
The rest of the paper is generally outstanding, though they have some high profile screw ups. Can’t trust anything 100% ever, but I don’t think this incident reflects on the rest of the paper. Regular NYT subscribers (myself included) already know what they’re getting in Opinion, and I personally think it’s trash.
gesticulator | 5 years ago | on: I Am Deleting the Blog
The NYT operates on links, this is not cable news. Of course it will be shared on FB and elsewhere, so not getting your point at all.
As for the final point, I think there’s a reasonable debate to be had there! I don’t know exactly where I stand on it, I personally find the piece disturbing and it crosses the line in a functioning democracy. However, it certainly informed me beyond a doubt to Cotton’s and his colleagues’ opinions, so I just have to trust others felt similarly.
gesticulator | 5 years ago | on: I Am Deleting the Blog
However, the poster is trying to put the Cotton op-Ed in the same league as fairly mild policy debates in the WSJ. I find that dangerously close to legimitizing it.
gesticulator | 5 years ago | on: I Am Deleting the Blog
gesticulator | 5 years ago | on: I Am Deleting the Blog
gesticulator | 5 years ago | on: Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone
gesticulator | 6 years ago | on: Mystery in Wuhan: recovered coronavirus patients test negative then positive
It’s a sad mix of propaganda and temporary faith in a shaky globally supply chain.
gesticulator | 6 years ago | on: Why Every Website Wants You to Accept Its Cookies
Is it possible for us to create a tech ecosystem where those 3rd party cookies can be avoided in general?
gesticulator | 6 years ago | on: Google Brass Set 2023 as Deadline to Beat Amazon, Microsoft in Cloud
GCP started 11 years ago, 2008, with App Engine.
No, AWS and Amazon leaders did not even remotely discuss that possibility 2 years ago...
gesticulator | 6 years ago | on: Stripe Capital
gesticulator | 6 years ago | on: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)
gesticulator | 6 years ago | on: Extreme weather and extreme politics (2018)
gesticulator | 6 years ago | on: Tiananmen Square: China minister defends 1989 crackdown